The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, in Washington, with the statement due at 2 p.m. ET and Chair Kevin Warsh holding a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The decision lands hours before Microsoft and Alphabet report quarterly earnings after the market close, making Wednesday one of the busiest single days for markets this autumn.
The central expectation is a pause, not a pivot. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point in September to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and most economists and market pricing now point to that range staying unchanged in October.
Why a hold is the favoured outcome
A Reuters poll conducted from 16 to 20 October found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold rates in October. Futures pricing tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool has put the chance of a hold at roughly 90% in recent days, with the remaining probability largely assigned to another quarter-point increase.
The case for waiting rests on two competing pressures. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% longer-run target, with consumer prices up 3.7% over the year to September, yet the September jobs report showed only 29,000 new payrolls and unemployment edging up to 4.2%.
Holding rates gives policymakers time to judge how much of September’s increase has already tightened financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield has hovered near 5% in recent trading, a level that raises borrowing costs for mortgages, businesses and households even without a further Fed move.
What Warsh will — and will not — signal
October is not one of the meetings that includes a Summary of Economic Projections, so there will be no new dot plot of officials’ rate projections. That puts extra weight on the wording of the policy statement, the vote count and Warsh’s answers at the press conference.
Warsh has repeatedly declined to prejudge future meetings, saying he does not believe in announcing now what he might do later in the year. Investors will therefore listen less for a promise about December and more for how he describes inflation, demand and the balance of risks.
Any dissent will also be closely read. If some officials vote for an increase while the majority holds, it would signal that the December meeting on 8 and 9 December is live for a further move, even if October itself ends in a pause.
Wednesday’s timetable
| Event | Time (ET) | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve rate decision | 2:00 p.m., Wednesday 28 October | Whether the 3.75% to 4.00% range is held |
| Chair Kevin Warsh press conference | 2:30 p.m., Wednesday 28 October | Language on inflation and December |
| Microsoft fiscal Q1 2027 earnings | After the market close, Wednesday 28 October | Azure growth and AI spending |
| Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings | After the market close, Wednesday 28 October | Cloud growth and Search trends |
| Amazon Q3 2026 earnings | After the market close, Thursday 29 October | Cloud and retail demand |
The Federal Reserve’s official meeting calendar lists the October meeting as 27 to 28 October, with the next meeting scheduled for 8 and 9 December. That December date is why Wednesday’s statement matters beyond the day itself: it frames the last policy decision of 2026.
Microsoft and Alphabet face the AI spending test
After the close, Microsoft reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results and Alphabet reports third-quarter 2026 results. Wall Street expects Microsoft to post earnings per share of $4.73, up 14% from a year earlier, on revenue of $90.62 billion, according to TipRanks’ earnings preview.
For Alphabet, analysts forecast earnings per share of $3.03, up 5.6%, with revenue rising about 25% to $127.9 billion. Options pricing implies a move of about 5.09% in Microsoft shares and 5.99% in Alphabet shares after the reports, in either direction, which underlines how much is riding on guidance as well as headline numbers.
The central question for both companies is whether cloud growth can keep pace with the enormous sums being spent on AI infrastructure. Microsoft investors will focus on Azure and Microsoft 365 demand, while Alphabet investors will watch cloud growth and whether AI tools are changing Search behaviour.
That question already runs through this week’s other AI news. OpenAI’s Google AI chip plan shows how even rivals are sharing hardware to meet computing demand, and Anthropic’s IPO filing showed first-half revenue of $16.3 billion alongside heavy infrastructure costs.
What a hold would mean for households
A hold would leave the Fed’s benchmark rate where it is, but it would not by itself lower the rates households actually pay. Mortgage, credit-card and business-loan rates respond to Treasury yields, lender pricing and expectations for future Fed moves, not only to a single decision.
A statement that keeps December firmly in play could therefore keep borrowing costs elevated even on a day when rates do not change. A statement that sounds more patient, by contrast, could ease some of that pressure if markets read it as a longer pause.
The midterm elections on 3 November add political context, but the Fed’s stated task is narrower: price stability and maximum employment. Wednesday’s decision will be judged on whether the statement and Warsh’s remarks make that task look closer to, or further from, being met.
By Thursday morning, investors will have all three pieces: the Fed’s decision, Warsh’s explanation and the first full market reaction to Microsoft and Alphabet. Until then, the most accurate description of Wednesday is a day of two tests at once — one for monetary policy, and one for the economics of the AI boom.
