A record 47,922,669 Americans had already cast early ballots in the 2026 midterm elections by midday on Friday, 30 October 2026, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. The total passed the previous midterm early-voting record of about 45.9 million set in 2022, with days of early voting still to run before Election Day on Tuesday, 3 November 2026.
The surge is concentrated in states with fiercely contested Senate races that could decide control of Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency. Republicans currently hold both chambers, so the closing days of early voting and Tuesday’s in-person turnout will shape whether that control survives.
The figures were reported by AFP and carried in an AFP report on early voting, which cites the Election Lab’s nationwide count. The record arrives four days after our report that Democrats lead national polls, but early-vote totals measure who has voted, not how they voted.
Texas, Georgia and the states driving the surge
Texas has been the largest engine of the increase. More than six million Texans had voted early by Wednesday, according to official figures, with in-person turnout running around 50 percent ahead of the same stage in 2022.
Elsewhere, the gains have been just as sharp in smaller battlegrounds. North Carolina’s election board reported early voting up nearly 37 percent on the same point four years ago, while South Carolina passed its entire 2022 early-vote total on Monday, with five days of early voting still to go.
In Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a tough re-election fight, advance ballots were running around two-thirds ahead of 2022 last week, according to the secretary of state’s office. In Georgia, early in-person voting broke the state’s midterm record on Thursday.
| State | Early-voting milestone reported by 30 October |
|---|---|
| Texas | More than 6 million early votes by Wednesday; in-person turnout about 50% ahead of 2022 |
| North Carolina | Early voting up nearly 37% on the same point in 2022 |
| South Carolina | Passed its entire 2022 early-vote total on Monday, with five days still to go |
| Kansas | Advance ballots around two-thirds ahead of 2022 last week |
| Georgia | Early in-person voting broke the state’s midterm record on Thursday |
What the party split does — and does not — show
In states that record voters’ party affiliation, registered Democrats have accounted for a substantially larger share of early ballots than Republicans. Election Lab figures put Democrats at around 44 percent of early voters in those states, compared with 31 percent for Republicans and 25 percent for unaffiliated or minor-party voters.
That split is a registration count, not a result. A voter’s party registration does not reveal which candidates they supported, and tens of millions more Americans are still expected to cast ballots on Tuesday.
University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab, has also pointed to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data. The AFP report notes particularly strong turnout in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border.
| Group (states recording party affiliation) | Share of early ballots |
|---|---|
| Registered Democrats | About 44% |
| Registered Republicans | About 31% |
| Unaffiliated or minor-party voters | About 25% |
Georgia offers one more demographic detail from the same count: women accounted for 56 percent of ballots cast there by Thursday, compared with 44 percent for men. Georgia’s top elections official, Brad Raffensperger, said on Thursday that Georgians continued to head to the polls in record numbers because they trust the system.
Why a record early count is not a forecast
Analysts have cautioned against reading the record as a prediction of the outcome. In recent elections, Republicans have tended to turn out in greater numbers on Election Day, which could narrow or reverse the Democrats’ early advantage.
A higher early total also does not guarantee higher overall turnout. Some voters may simply be casting ballots sooner than they did in previous elections, rather than adding new voters to the electorate.
That distinction matters most in the Senate, where a handful of close races could decide control. With the House also in play, the final count — early ballots plus Tuesday’s votes — is what will settle the balance of power, not the early-vote lead alone.
What remains before Tuesday’s polls close
Early voting windows were still open in parts of the country on Saturday, 31 October 2026, and the national early-vote total will keep rising until those windows close. Campaigns on both sides are now focused on turning out the voters who have not yet cast a ballot.
President Trump closed the week by reinstating rallies in Kansas and Iowa after briefly cancelling them, while Democrats campaigned through the South and beyond in the final weekend. The question for both parties is no longer whether Americans are voting early in record numbers — that is settled — but who else shows up on Tuesday, 3 November.
